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Sharp, Consecutive Declines
In the currency market, the State Bank of Vietnam announced a reference exchange rate of 25,491 VND/USD on the morning of August 11, an increase of 25 VND compared to the previous session.
Meanwhile, Vietcombank listed the USD exchange rate at 25,970 – 26,350 VND/USD (buying – selling), a decrease of 50 VND on both sides compared to the previous morning.
Compared to the peak range of 26,500 – 26,530 VND/USD recorded in late July, the USD rate at banks has now fallen by approximately 180 VND/USD. Notably, this downward trend is occurring not only within the banking system but is even more pronounced in the unofficial (free) market.
In the unofficial market, the USD is trading around 25,680 – 25,710 VND/USD, down 120 VND on both sides compared to yesterday. Consequently, the selling price of the USD in the unofficial market is now about 640 VND/USD lower than at banks and is also significantly lower than the buying rates offered by many commercial banks.
Free-market USD rate falls below bank rates.
This is a notable development, as the free-market USD rate has historically tended to be higher than the rate traded at banks—with the gap often widening during periods of high market volatility.
In early 2026, the free-market USD rate at times exceeded 28,000 VND/USD. By the end of March, the free-market rate was nearly 1,800 VND/USD higher than bank rates; however, the trend has since reversed.
Easing of USD hoarding sentiment
Speaking to a *Tien Phong* reporter, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy—an expert from the Faculty of Finance and Banking at Nguyen Trai University—observed that the free-market USD rate dropping below both the buying and selling rates at many commercial banks is a relatively rare occurrence in recent years.
According to Mr. Huy, the free-market USD rate previously remained higher than the banking system"s rates due to the impact of flexible transaction needs and exchange rate expectations. Currently, foreign currency supply and demand are undergoing significant shifts. This also signals the effectiveness of foreign exchange market management amidst continued macroeconomic stability.
"In reality, the free-market USD rate is highly sensitive to market sentiment. When there is an expectation of USD appreciation, the demand for holding foreign currency typically rises, pushing the free-market rate above bank rates. Conversely, when speculative expectations subside—leading to increased sales of foreign currency and weakened buying demand—the rate in this market can adjust more rapidly than in the banking system," Mr. Huy analyzed. According to experts, the fact that the free-market USD rate is lower than the banking rate reflects a significant decline in the tendency to hoard foreign currency.
Mr. Huy believes that the exchange rate will likely continue to be managed to ensure stability within an appropriate range. The objective is not only to alleviate pressure on the foreign exchange market but also to balance this with the need to control inflation, maintain macroeconomic stability, and support production and business activities.
Financial expert Nguyen Tri Hieu also forecasts that the exchange rate will likely remain stable through the end of the year, noting that the goal of limiting the increase to no more than 3% compared to the beginning of the year is feasible. However, Mr. Hieu points out that certain factors could still impact the exchange rate in the final months of the year, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and new tariff policies from the US.
Another noteworthy factor is that the exchange rate has not faced significant pressure despite a widening trade deficit. According to Mr. Hieu, this indicates a relatively abundant supply of foreign currency within the system.
Source: 24h.com.vn